Viw Magazine

Business Coach

  • Written by Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne
While there has only been a modest drop in Trump's ratings, support for impeachment has risen sharply. AAP/EPA/Jim Lo Scalzo

About two weeks since a transcript of Donald Trump’s phone conversation with the Ukrainian president was revealed, his approval with all polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is 41.6% and his disapproval is 54.0%. Trump’s net approval is -12.4%, down 2.5% since last fortnight’s article.


Read more: Warren placed second after Biden, as Trump's ratings rise. But could the impeachment scandal make a difference?


With polls of registered or likely voters, Trump’s approval is 42.2% and his disapproval is 53.9%, for a net approval of -11.7%, down 3.4% since last fortnight. The Ukraine scandal has had a small but discernible impact on Trump’s ratings.

As I wrote previously, I did not expect this scandal to have a serious or lasting impact, as better-educated voters already detest Trump, while lower-educated voters are far more focused on the economy. Indeed, after an initial drop, Trump’s ratings have stabilised recently.

While there has only been a modest drop in Trump’s ratings, support for impeachment has risen sharply. Before the Ukraine scandal, 51.0% opposed impeachment and 40.1% supported it, according to the FiveThirtyEight tracker. Currently, 49.2% support impeachment while 43.3% are opposed. Support has risen strongly among Democrats and non-aligned voters, but only modestly with Republicans.

The vast majority of Trump disapprovers now support impeachment, but the Ukraine scandal has not converted many Trump approvers into disapprovers.

Despite the increased public support for impeachment, there is very little chance that the Senate, which Republicans control 53-47, will reach the two-thirds majority required to remove Trump from office before the November 2020 election. In the RealClearPolitics average, Trump has well over 80% support for the Republican presidential nomination, with the other three candidates at about 2% each. Republican senators are very unlikely to go against their party’s base.

In head-to-head polling against the three leading Democrats in RealClearPolitics averages, Trump trails Joe Biden by 7.4 points (7.7 points last fortnight). He trails Elizabeth Warren by 4.5 points (4.0) and Bernie Sanders by 5.2 (4.8).

US jobs situation still good

Last week, there were worse than expected September industry surveys for the services sector in both the US and Europe. However, the US added 136,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% – the lowest since 1969. The one negative aspect of this jobs report was that hourly pay dropped 1c after increasing 11c in August.

The low US unemployment rate is not just because of low participation. The employment population ratio – the percentage of eligible Americans who are employed – increased 0.1% to 61.0% in September, its highest since December 2008, near the beginning of the global financial crisis.

My view is that, bad as Trump’s ratings are, they would be worse without the strong US economy; this explains why Trump’s ratings improved during September as the recession talk from August faded. If the US jobs reports continue to have good news until November 2020, Trump will have a reasonable chance of re-election.

There are two economic policies being pursued by the right that could undermine the global economy. One is the US/China trade war, where talks this week are unlikely to make progress. The other is Brexit, particularly a no-deal Brexit. A no-deal Brexit may occur on October 31, but is more likely after an election that current polling indicates the UK Conservatives would win.

Warren surges to tie with Biden in Democratic polls

In the RealClearPolitics average of Democratic national polls, Warren and Biden are virtually tied, with Warren at 26.6% and Biden 26.4%. It is the first lead for anyone other than Biden. Sanders is at 14.6%, Pete Buttigieg at 5.6%, Kamala Harris at 4.4% and nobody else has more than 3%.

Since the September 12 Democratic debate, Warren’s support has increased at the expense of Biden, Harris and Sanders. Some of Sanders’ recent drop is probably due to his October 1 heart attack.

In early state polls, there have been no new polls since last fortnight in Iowa, with Warren leading Biden by 23.0% to 20.3%. In New Hampshire, the two polls taken since the September 12 debate have Warren leading Biden by one to two points.


Read more: US Democratic presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?


The big exception to Warren’s rise is South Carolina, which is the last of the four early states to vote on February 29. Owing to strong black support for Biden, he has a lead over Warren exceeding 20 points in three post-debate polls in that state.

The next Democratic debate will be held on October 15. Contrary to my previous expectations, the 12 qualifying candidates will not be split over two nights, but instead appear all on one night. The threshold has been increased for November and future debates, and so far eight candidates have qualified for the November 20 debate.

Brexit, Austrian, Portuguese and Canadian elections

I wrote for The Poll Bludger about Brexit and the September 29 Austrian election results, in which the conservatives won, but need an ally to reach a majority. My latest Poll Bludger article is about Brexit and the October 6 Portuguese election, a rare triumph for the left in a democratic world that is trending to the right.

The Canadian election will be held on October 21. The CBC Poll Tracker has the Conservatives and Liberals virtually tied in voting intentions, with the Liberals ahead on seats, but short of a majority.

Australian Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Australian Newspoll, conducted September 26-29 from a sample of 1,660, gave the Coalition a 51-49 lead, unchanged since early September. Primary votes were 42% Coalition (down one), 33% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (up one, and their best Newspoll since 2015) and 6% One Nation (up one).

Scott Morrison’s net approval was +4, down six points. Anthony Albanese’s net approval was -1, up four points. Morrison led Albanese as better PM by 50-31 (48-28 previously).

Voters favoured prioritising the US relationship over China by 56% to 25%. All figures from The Poll Bludger.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

Read more http://theconversation.com/trumps-ratings-slightly-down-after-ukraine-scandal-as-warren-surges-to-tie-biden-in-democratic-polls-124768

Important Instructions for Australians Living in Camper Trailers

Living in a camper trailer offers Australians a unique way to embrace adventure and freedom while exploring the vast and beautiful landsca...

Maintaining Your Mini Digger: Tips for Longevity and Performance

If you're a proud owner or operator of a mini digger in Australia, you understand the importance of keeping your equipment in top-notch co...

Transform Your Business To Success: The Role Of Branding Agencies In Melbourne

In the bustling city of Melbourne, where every corner tells a story of innovation and creativity, the importance of branding cannot be o...

Revealing The Timeless Appeal Of Ladies' Bodysuits

Fashion has always been a canvas for self-expression, a realm where innovation and tradition intertwine to create garments that not only a...

What Is Crude Oil, and Why Is It Important to Investors?

Crude oil is the lifeblood of the global economy. As an investor, understanding the ins and outs of this vital commodity can be crucial to...

A Sweet Tooth's Guide to the Best Cakes in Melbourne

Indulge your sweet tooth in Melbourne's finest cakes! Brunetti offers decadent chocolate delights like Ciambella Chocolate Teacakes. Mel...

Alan Williams' Impact on Chicago's Defense: Analyzing Key Changes and Improvements

When Alan Williams stepped onto the field as the defensive coordinator for Chicago, expectations were high. His reputation for crafting di...

Understanding the Different Types of Pickup Truck Car Covers

Picking the right truck cover starts with understanding the various types available on the market. Each type is designed to address specif...

Understanding Commercial Plumbing in Adelaide

Introduction In the bustling city of Adelaide, where businesses thrive across diverse sectors, the seamless operation of commercial facil...

Driving into the Future: The Evolution of the Automotive Market in Australia - Trends and Predictions

Examining “the evolution of the automotive market in Australia: trends and predictions” reveals a swift embrace of electric vehicles a...

Crocs: Defying Fashion Norms and Redefining Individuality

In the realm of contemporary footwear, a singular item has emerged as a polarizing yet undeniably iconic choice: the versatile rubber shoe...

Benefits of Network Monitoring Devices in Businesses

In an era where seamless connectivity underpins business operations, ensuring a robust and secure network is paramount for any enterprise...

Tips for Staying Socially Active as a Senior

Staying socially active as a senior can be a challenging task. It becomes particularly difficult as mobility decreases, and friends and fa...

The Benefits of Living in Nature

Have you ever dreamed of buying a mountain property for sale, living immersed in nature, and being surrounded by the beauty of trees and w...

Affordable and Chic: A Guide to Stylish Splashback Tiling on a Budget

When it comes to kitchen renovations, splashback tiling stands out as a game-changer. Not only does it serve a practical purpose by protec...

How to Choose the Perfect Trailer for Your Needs

Whether you're hauling equipment for work or embarking on a weekend adventure, selecting the right trailer is essential. With a myriad of ...

Is There a downside to Taking collagen peptides? Understanding the Side Effects for a Healthier You

Introduction  Lately, everyone seems to be talking about collagen peptides. They're a type of protein that comes from collagen, a key pa...

The Best Materials for Living Room Plantation Shutters: A Comparison

Plantation shutters are a timeless and elegant window treatment that adds both style and functionality to any living space. When it comes ...

Top 5 Home Renovations That Increase Property Value

Enhancing the value of your property is a common goal for homeowners, whether they plan to sell soon or simply want to boost their investm...

Discover the Elegance of Sheer Curtains in Melbourne: A Guide to Custom-Made Sheer Elegance

When it comes to enhancing the aesthetics and functionality of your living spaces, the right choice of window treatments can make all the ...

Tomorrow Business Growth