Viw Magazine

Men's Weekly

.

  • Written by Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne
While there has only been a modest drop in Trump's ratings, support for impeachment has risen sharply. AAP/EPA/Jim Lo Scalzo

About two weeks since a transcript of Donald Trump’s phone conversation with the Ukrainian president was revealed, his approval with all polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is 41.6% and his disapproval is 54.0%. Trump’s net approval is -12.4%, down 2.5% since last fortnight’s article.


Read more: Warren placed second after Biden, as Trump's ratings rise. But could the impeachment scandal make a difference?


With polls of registered or likely voters, Trump’s approval is 42.2% and his disapproval is 53.9%, for a net approval of -11.7%, down 3.4% since last fortnight. The Ukraine scandal has had a small but discernible impact on Trump’s ratings.

As I wrote previously, I did not expect this scandal to have a serious or lasting impact, as better-educated voters already detest Trump, while lower-educated voters are far more focused on the economy. Indeed, after an initial drop, Trump’s ratings have stabilised recently.

While there has only been a modest drop in Trump’s ratings, support for impeachment has risen sharply. Before the Ukraine scandal, 51.0% opposed impeachment and 40.1% supported it, according to the FiveThirtyEight tracker. Currently, 49.2% support impeachment while 43.3% are opposed. Support has risen strongly among Democrats and non-aligned voters, but only modestly with Republicans.

The vast majority of Trump disapprovers now support impeachment, but the Ukraine scandal has not converted many Trump approvers into disapprovers.

Despite the increased public support for impeachment, there is very little chance that the Senate, which Republicans control 53-47, will reach the two-thirds majority required to remove Trump from office before the November 2020 election. In the RealClearPolitics average, Trump has well over 80% support for the Republican presidential nomination, with the other three candidates at about 2% each. Republican senators are very unlikely to go against their party’s base.

In head-to-head polling against the three leading Democrats in RealClearPolitics averages, Trump trails Joe Biden by 7.4 points (7.7 points last fortnight). He trails Elizabeth Warren by 4.5 points (4.0) and Bernie Sanders by 5.2 (4.8).

US jobs situation still good

Last week, there were worse than expected September industry surveys for the services sector in both the US and Europe. However, the US added 136,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% – the lowest since 1969. The one negative aspect of this jobs report was that hourly pay dropped 1c after increasing 11c in August.

The low US unemployment rate is not just because of low participation. The employment population ratio – the percentage of eligible Americans who are employed – increased 0.1% to 61.0% in September, its highest since December 2008, near the beginning of the global financial crisis.

My view is that, bad as Trump’s ratings are, they would be worse without the strong US economy; this explains why Trump’s ratings improved during September as the recession talk from August faded. If the US jobs reports continue to have good news until November 2020, Trump will have a reasonable chance of re-election.

There are two economic policies being pursued by the right that could undermine the global economy. One is the US/China trade war, where talks this week are unlikely to make progress. The other is Brexit, particularly a no-deal Brexit. A no-deal Brexit may occur on October 31, but is more likely after an election that current polling indicates the UK Conservatives would win.

Warren surges to tie with Biden in Democratic polls

In the RealClearPolitics average of Democratic national polls, Warren and Biden are virtually tied, with Warren at 26.6% and Biden 26.4%. It is the first lead for anyone other than Biden. Sanders is at 14.6%, Pete Buttigieg at 5.6%, Kamala Harris at 4.4% and nobody else has more than 3%.

Since the September 12 Democratic debate, Warren’s support has increased at the expense of Biden, Harris and Sanders. Some of Sanders’ recent drop is probably due to his October 1 heart attack.

In early state polls, there have been no new polls since last fortnight in Iowa, with Warren leading Biden by 23.0% to 20.3%. In New Hampshire, the two polls taken since the September 12 debate have Warren leading Biden by one to two points.


Read more: US Democratic presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?


The big exception to Warren’s rise is South Carolina, which is the last of the four early states to vote on February 29. Owing to strong black support for Biden, he has a lead over Warren exceeding 20 points in three post-debate polls in that state.

The next Democratic debate will be held on October 15. Contrary to my previous expectations, the 12 qualifying candidates will not be split over two nights, but instead appear all on one night. The threshold has been increased for November and future debates, and so far eight candidates have qualified for the November 20 debate.

Brexit, Austrian, Portuguese and Canadian elections

I wrote for The Poll Bludger about Brexit and the September 29 Austrian election results, in which the conservatives won, but need an ally to reach a majority. My latest Poll Bludger article is about Brexit and the October 6 Portuguese election, a rare triumph for the left in a democratic world that is trending to the right.

The Canadian election will be held on October 21. The CBC Poll Tracker has the Conservatives and Liberals virtually tied in voting intentions, with the Liberals ahead on seats, but short of a majority.

Australian Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Australian Newspoll, conducted September 26-29 from a sample of 1,660, gave the Coalition a 51-49 lead, unchanged since early September. Primary votes were 42% Coalition (down one), 33% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (up one, and their best Newspoll since 2015) and 6% One Nation (up one).

Scott Morrison’s net approval was +4, down six points. Anthony Albanese’s net approval was -1, up four points. Morrison led Albanese as better PM by 50-31 (48-28 previously).

Voters favoured prioritising the US relationship over China by 56% to 25%. All figures from The Poll Bludger.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

Read more http://theconversation.com/trumps-ratings-slightly-down-after-ukraine-scandal-as-warren-surges-to-tie-biden-in-democratic-polls-124768

VR Training in Australia – Conflict Resolution Training For Employees

In today’s rapidly evolving workplaces, Australian organisations are turning to immersive learning tools like VR to handle specialised n...

Financial Planning For Couples

Why Every Couple Should Talk About Money And A Will (Before It’s Too Late) When you’re in a new, exciting relationship, it’s easy t...

Navigating Relationships While Living with Depression

Living with depression can feel like carrying an invisible weight—one that not only affects how you experience the world but also how yo...

Choosing the Right Vinyl Flooring Suppliers for Your Home or Business

When it comes to selecting flooring options that combine durability, style, and affordability, vinyl flooring stands out as a top choice. ...

Why Food Manufacturing Cleaning Services Are Essential for Safety and Quality

The complexity of food production environments demands specialised cleaning approaches that go beyond regular janitorial work. This is whe...

The Importance of Choosing the Right Industrial Electrician Melbourne for Your Business

When it comes to powering large-scale operations and complex machinery, commercial electrical services are not enough. Industrial environm...

What to Expect During a Property Settlement After Separation

Separation is a challenging and emotional time, and one of the most complex aspects can be the division of property. However, understandin...

Designing the Ideal Healthcare Environment with a Professional Medical Centre Fitout

When it comes to healthcare spaces, functionality, hygiene, and patient comfort take top priority. An intelligently designed medical centr...

Stay Comfortable Year-Round with Ducted Cooling Melbourne

When the temperature starts to rise, having a reliable and efficient cooling system becomes a priority. With unpredictable weather and sud...

Best Practices for Content Ownership and Tagging Across Departments

Image by kaboompics on Freepik The bigger and more complex content ecosystems grow, the more valuable ownership and tagging become. In ent...

Understanding Public Liability Insurance Australia: What You Need to Know

Image by rawpixel.com on Freepik The necessity of public liability insurance in Australia is that it acts as a financial safeguard for busi...

How HID Proximity Cards Improve Workplace Security Without Slowing Down Access

In today’s workplaces, security is non-negotiable, but so is speed. Companies are under pressure to protect their people, property, and ...

Unlock Business Insights Faster with Power BI Tools

In this digital age where data drives the consumer landscape, businesses are shipping huge amounts of data every day. To remain competit...

Why Split System Installation Is a Smart Choice for Home Climate Control

Temperature control is essential for comfort, and when it comes to efficient, versatile cooling and heating, a split system is one of the ...

What You Need to Know About SMSF Setup in Australia

Setting up a self-managed super fund (SMSF) is becoming an increasingly popular choice for Australians who want more control over their re...

The Ultimate Guide to Door Replacement: Everything You Need to Know

Image by freepik Sure, swapping out a door is a fairly easy task, but it requires careful consideration of options for materials, designs...

Common Web Development Issues Perth Businesses Face (and How Agencies Fix Them)

Image by freepik Let's be honest, in the bustling heart of Perth's business scene, a website that's not up to scratch is like trying to he...

Life With Clear Aligners: 10 Small Changes That Make a Big Difference

Image by tonodiaz on Freepik Clear aligners have transformed orthodontics, offering a nearly invisible way to straighten teeth without the...

Choosing the Right Hair Loss Treatment for Your Needs

Millions of people experience hair loss globally, and it can be a major cause of emotional discomfort and self-consciousness. Hair loss ca...

Cardboard Display Boxes: An Effective Solution for Retail Presentation

In the competitive world of retail, how products are presented can be just as important as the products themselves. Cardboard display boxe...