Viw Magazine

Men's Weekly

.

  • Written by Paul Read, Climate Criminologist & Senior Instructor/Lecturer, Faculty of Medicine, Monash University

It’s hard to estimate the eventual economic cost of Australia’s 2019-20 megafires, partly because they are still underway, and partly because it is hard to know the cost to attribute to deaths and the decimation of species and habitats, but it is easy to get an idea of its significance – the cost will be unprecedented.

The deadliest bushfires in the past 200 years took place in 1851, then 1939, then 1983, 2009, now 2019-20. The years between them are shrinking rapidly. Only a remote grassfire in central Australia in 1974-75 rivalled them in terms of size, although not in terms of material burnt or loss of life.

The term “megafire” is a new one, defined in the early 2000s to help describe disturbing new wildfires emerging in the United States – massive blazes, usually above 400,000 hectares, often joining up, that create more than usual destruction to life and property.


Read more: Firestorms and flaming tornadoes: how bushfires create their own ferocious weather systems


Australia’s current fires dwarf the US fires that inspired the term.

They are 25 times the size of Australia’s deadliest bushfires, the 2009 Black Saturday fires in Victoria that directly killed 173 people, and are so large and intense that they create their own weather in which winds throw embers 30 kilometres or more ahead of the front and pyro-cumulus clouds produce dry lightning that ignites new fires.

The Black Saturday fires burnt 430,000 hectares. The current fires have killed fewer people but have so far burnt 10.7 million hectares – an area the size of South Korea, or Scotland and Wales combined.

There are easy-to-measure costs…

The federal government has promised to put at least A$2 billion into a National Bushfire Recovery Fund, which is roughly the size of the first estimate of the cost of the fires calculated by Terry Rawnsley of SGS Economics and Planning.

He put the cost at somewhere between A$1.5 and $2.5 billion, using his firm’s modelling of the cost of the NSW Tathra fires in March 2018 as a base.

It’s the total of the lost income from farm production, tourism and the like.

It is possible to get an idea of wider costs using the findings of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission.

Final Report, 2019 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission

It came up with an estimate for tangible costs of A$4.369 billion, which after inflation would be about $5 billion in today’s dollars.

… and harder-to-measure costs

Tangible costs are those easily measured including the cost of replacing things such as destroyed homes, contents and vehicles.

They also include the human lives lost, which were valued at A$3.7 million per life (2009 dollars) in accordance with a Commonwealth standard.

The measure didn’t include the effect of injuries and shortened lives due to smoke-related stroke and cardiovascular and lung diseases, or damage to species and habitats, the loss of livestock, grain and feed, crops, orchards and national and local parks.

Also excluded were “intangibles”, among them the social costs of mental health problems and unemployment and increases in suicide, substance abuse, relationship breakdowns and domestic violence.


Read more: Take care when examining the economic impact of fires. GDP doesn't tell the full story


The cost of intangibles can peak years after a disaster and continue to take tolls for decades, if not generations.

One attempt to estimate the cost of intangibles was made by Deloitte Access Economics, in work for the Australian Business Roundtable for Disaster Resilience & Safer Communities.

Deloitte put the tangible costs of the Black Saturday fires at A$3.1 billion in 2015 dollars and the intangible costs at more than that again: A$3.9 billion, producing a total of A$7 billion, which would be A$7.6 billion in today’s dollars.

Black Saturday is a staring point

2009 Victoria Black Saturday bushfires. ANDREW BROWNBILL/AAP

This season’s megafires are, so far, less costly than the 2009 Victorian fires in terms of human life, roughly on par in terms of lost homes, and less costly for other structures.

But given that considerably more land has been burnt we can expect other costs to eclipse those of Black Saturday.

As of today, 25 times as much land has been burnt.

Scaling up the royal commission’s Black Saturday figures for the size of the fire and scaling them down for the fewer deaths and other things that shouldn’t be scaled up produces an estimate of tangible costs of A$103 billion in today’s dollars.

The Deloitte Access Economics ratio of intangible to tangible costs suggests a total for both types of costs of A$230 billion.

As it happens, the tangible costs estimate is close to an estimate of A$100 billion prepared using different methods by University of Queensland economist John Quiggin.


Read more: We know bushfire smoke affects our health, but the long-term consequences are hazy


The reality won’t be clear for some time.

There are several weeks of fire season remaining, and we are yet to reach the usual peak season for Victoria, which is the first week of February.

What we can safely say, with weeks left to go, is that these fires are by far Australia’s costliest natural disaster.

Paul Read has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

Richard Denniss does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Authors: Paul Read, Climate Criminologist & Senior Instructor/Lecturer, Faculty of Medicine, Monash University

Read more http://theconversation.com/with-costs-approaching-100-billion-the-fires-are-australias-costliest-natural-disaster-129433

Why Shade Structures in Melbourne Are Essential for Comfort & UV Protection

Introduction Melbourne’s climate is famously unpredictable, but when the sun shines, it often brings with it high levels of ultraviolet...

Choosing the Right Water Tanks Melbourne for Your Home or Business

Rising water bills, unpredictable rainfall, and the need to reduce reliance on the mains supply have encouraged many residents and busines...

Elevating Interiors with Hybrid Timber Flooring

Flooring is one of the most important elements of interior design, setting the foundation for the overall look, comfort, and functionality...

Why Visiting a Dentist Regularly is Essential for Oral Health

Good oral health is more than just having a bright smile—it plays an important role in overall well-being. Regular visits to a dentist ...

How Construction Law Firms in Melbourne Safeguard Complex Projects

Introduction From multi-storey developments to infrastructure upgrades, construction in Melbourne is thriving. Yet each project carries l...

The Ultimate Guide to Home Security Camera Laws in Australia

Security cameras are now one of the most common ways Australians protect their homes, families, and businesses. But before you install a C...

Ways Branded Apparel Boosts Team Morale & Business Image

Introduction Branded uniforms and apparel are often seen as a basic necessity, but they play a much bigger role in building company cultu...

The Rise of WordPress-Powered Mobile Applications

In the age of rapid digitalisation, companies are always on the lookout for new methods to reach their customers and provide end-to-end di...

7 Ways Roller Shutters Perth Can Save You Money & Energy

Thinking about ways to cut down on your bills and make your home more comfortable in Perth? You're not alone! Many homeowners are looking fo...

Sydney Gets Fired Up: Fireball Whisky Launches ‘Motel Fireball Inn’

The number one shot in Australia (and the USA) is turning up the heat!  Fireball Whisky is bringing the party to Sydney with the launch...

Why Headless CMS Is Essential for Global B2B Sales Enablement

B2B selling is more global, digital and complex than ever. B2B buyers want accurate, timely and needs-based information no matter where th...

Top Tips for Successfully Completing Training and Passing Driving Tests

Learning to drive can feel exciting and a little overwhelming at the same time. Whether you’re preparing for your very first driving test ...

Why Location Still Rules in Real Estate

When people talk about real estate, the phrase location, location, location always comes up. It might sound like a cliché, but it’s still...

The Ultimate Guide to Renting: Landlord and Tenant Rights

Renting a property can be a smooth and rewarding experience when both landlords and tenants understand their rights and responsibilities. Cl...

The Pros and Cons of Renting vs. Owning a Home

Deciding between owning and renting a home is a huge financial choice a lot of people have to deal with in their lifetime. While homeownersh...

Innovative Ways to Showcase Your Products and Services Effectively

You don’t have to be in these waters to know that marketing has always been a game of attention. Attention is expensive, even more than go...

How to Choose the Right Real Estate Agent for You

Whether you’re buying or selling a property, having a real estate agent on your side can be a game-changer. They know the ins and outs of ...

Finding True Connection in the Rush of Modern Life

Life in major cities is full of opportunities, yet many residents find themselves feeling disconnected and isolated. Despite being surrounde...

Finding Balance: Fun, Safety, and Connection in Modern Nightlife

Modern nightlife has evolved into more than just dancing and music—it’s a cultural space where people seek entertainment, connection, an...

Essential Skills and Tips for First-Time Volunteers Abroad

So, you have decided to embark on a jubilant adventure of volunteering abroad? Congrats, you are in for a real treat! Not only that, but who...