Viw Magazine

Men's Weekly

.

  • Written by Paul Read, Climate Criminologist & Senior Instructor/Lecturer, Faculty of Medicine, Monash University

It’s hard to estimate the eventual economic cost of Australia’s 2019-20 megafires, partly because they are still underway, and partly because it is hard to know the cost to attribute to deaths and the decimation of species and habitats, but it is easy to get an idea of its significance – the cost will be unprecedented.

The deadliest bushfires in the past 200 years took place in 1851, then 1939, then 1983, 2009, now 2019-20. The years between them are shrinking rapidly. Only a remote grassfire in central Australia in 1974-75 rivalled them in terms of size, although not in terms of material burnt or loss of life.

The term “megafire” is a new one, defined in the early 2000s to help describe disturbing new wildfires emerging in the United States – massive blazes, usually above 400,000 hectares, often joining up, that create more than usual destruction to life and property.


Read more: Firestorms and flaming tornadoes: how bushfires create their own ferocious weather systems


Australia’s current fires dwarf the US fires that inspired the term.

They are 25 times the size of Australia’s deadliest bushfires, the 2009 Black Saturday fires in Victoria that directly killed 173 people, and are so large and intense that they create their own weather in which winds throw embers 30 kilometres or more ahead of the front and pyro-cumulus clouds produce dry lightning that ignites new fires.

The Black Saturday fires burnt 430,000 hectares. The current fires have killed fewer people but have so far burnt 10.7 million hectares – an area the size of South Korea, or Scotland and Wales combined.

There are easy-to-measure costs…

The federal government has promised to put at least A$2 billion into a National Bushfire Recovery Fund, which is roughly the size of the first estimate of the cost of the fires calculated by Terry Rawnsley of SGS Economics and Planning.

He put the cost at somewhere between A$1.5 and $2.5 billion, using his firm’s modelling of the cost of the NSW Tathra fires in March 2018 as a base.

It’s the total of the lost income from farm production, tourism and the like.

It is possible to get an idea of wider costs using the findings of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission.

Final Report, 2019 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission

It came up with an estimate for tangible costs of A$4.369 billion, which after inflation would be about $5 billion in today’s dollars.

… and harder-to-measure costs

Tangible costs are those easily measured including the cost of replacing things such as destroyed homes, contents and vehicles.

They also include the human lives lost, which were valued at A$3.7 million per life (2009 dollars) in accordance with a Commonwealth standard.

The measure didn’t include the effect of injuries and shortened lives due to smoke-related stroke and cardiovascular and lung diseases, or damage to species and habitats, the loss of livestock, grain and feed, crops, orchards and national and local parks.

Also excluded were “intangibles”, among them the social costs of mental health problems and unemployment and increases in suicide, substance abuse, relationship breakdowns and domestic violence.


Read more: Take care when examining the economic impact of fires. GDP doesn't tell the full story


The cost of intangibles can peak years after a disaster and continue to take tolls for decades, if not generations.

One attempt to estimate the cost of intangibles was made by Deloitte Access Economics, in work for the Australian Business Roundtable for Disaster Resilience & Safer Communities.

Deloitte put the tangible costs of the Black Saturday fires at A$3.1 billion in 2015 dollars and the intangible costs at more than that again: A$3.9 billion, producing a total of A$7 billion, which would be A$7.6 billion in today’s dollars.

Black Saturday is a staring point

2009 Victoria Black Saturday bushfires. ANDREW BROWNBILL/AAP

This season’s megafires are, so far, less costly than the 2009 Victorian fires in terms of human life, roughly on par in terms of lost homes, and less costly for other structures.

But given that considerably more land has been burnt we can expect other costs to eclipse those of Black Saturday.

As of today, 25 times as much land has been burnt.

Scaling up the royal commission’s Black Saturday figures for the size of the fire and scaling them down for the fewer deaths and other things that shouldn’t be scaled up produces an estimate of tangible costs of A$103 billion in today’s dollars.

The Deloitte Access Economics ratio of intangible to tangible costs suggests a total for both types of costs of A$230 billion.

As it happens, the tangible costs estimate is close to an estimate of A$100 billion prepared using different methods by University of Queensland economist John Quiggin.


Read more: We know bushfire smoke affects our health, but the long-term consequences are hazy


The reality won’t be clear for some time.

There are several weeks of fire season remaining, and we are yet to reach the usual peak season for Victoria, which is the first week of February.

What we can safely say, with weeks left to go, is that these fires are by far Australia’s costliest natural disaster.

Paul Read has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

Richard Denniss does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Authors: Paul Read, Climate Criminologist & Senior Instructor/Lecturer, Faculty of Medicine, Monash University

Read more http://theconversation.com/with-costs-approaching-100-billion-the-fires-are-australias-costliest-natural-disaster-129433

Mini Dresses Australia: Most-Wanted Styles

Image source:Santori The Label Mini Dresses Australia: Most-Wanted Styles Few pieces capture the spirit of Australian fashion quite like t...

How an Eye Specialist and Ophthalmologist Melbourne Help Manage Complex Vision Needs

Vision is one of the most valuable senses, yet it is often overlooked until problems arise. In a world where screen use is at an all-time ...

One-Day Dental Crowns in Bangkok: Why Australians Are Choosing Thailand

Dental crowns are one of the most common restorative treatments for damaged teeth, but in Australia, the cost and long waiting times can be ...

Why the Humble Pizza Box Is a Cornerstone of Food Packaging

Few items in the world of food packaging are as iconic and universally recognized as the pizza box. More than just a container, it is a vi...

Automatic Sliding Screen Door: A Blend of Convenience and Modern Design

Modern homes and businesses are constantly evolving to embrace innovations that combine convenience, security, and style. Among these inno...

Your Go-To Electrical Wholesaler in Sydney for Quality Sparkie Supplies

Let's be fair dinkum, when you're a electrical technision in Sydney, the last thing you want is to be running around like a headless chook l...

Why Doctors Recommend Earplugs for Flying with Sinus Issues

Air travel is convenient, but for people with sinus issues, it can be anything but comfortable. The pressure changes that occur during takeo...

Tradies Make Great Money - So Why Aren't Kids Becoming Apprentices?

Jack loved building, fixing, and improving, and always assumed he would become a tradie like his dad. However, his dreams hit the skids when...

Breastfeeding for Working Mothers: How to Make It Work at Work

Being a breastfeeding working mothers can at times be quite a challenge. Mothers oftentimes wonder if they are capable of expressing milk, s...

Quietly Productive: How Smart Design and Flexible Furniture are Transforming Australian Offices in 2026

For decades, Australian workplaces have been shaped by the open-plan office. Once celebrated as the ultimate collaboration hub, it is now ...

Can’t Afford a First Home in Brisbane? Buy an Investment Property in Regional Queensland

You’re not the only one that is struggling to afford a home. First homes in Brisbane cost an arm and a leg and possibly a few organs too! ...

Understanding Airflow Requirements for Efficient Evaporative Cooling

Evaporative cooling works on a simple principle: drawing warm air through water-saturated pads and circulating the cooled air throughout a...

Garage Door Torsion Springs: What They Are and Why They Matter

Garage doors might seem simple, but they rely on a system of components that work together to provide smooth and balanced movement. One of...

Why a Retractable Hose Reel Is a Must-Have for Every Australian Property

When managing outdoor spaces, whether residential, commercial, or industrial, water management tools are essential. Among the most practic...

7 Signs Your Lorry Needs a Diesel Mechanic, Stat!

Your lorry is the backbone of your business. When it's running smoothly, everything else tends to fall into place. But what happens when t...

Mean Mother Air Compressor and Autostrada Cruise Control: Enhancing the Journey

Modern 4WD accessories like the Mean Mother air compressor and Autostrada cruise control systems transform both capability and comfort for...

Why Real Estate Is a Smart Long-Term Investment

When it comes to building wealth and securing financial stability, few opportunities stand as tall as real estate. Unlike short-term venture...

The Ultimate Guide to Building a Home Gym on a Budget

For many people, the idea of building a home gym feels expensive and overwhelming, but it doesn’t have to be. The truth is, you don’t ne...

Red Flags to Look Out for When Buying an Investment Property

When you're looking to buy a property to rent out, it is a great way to build wealth. But not every property is a good deal. To make a smart...

The Complete Guide to Navigating the Home Buying Process

Buying a home in Australia is a wild ride. There’s the pressure, the excitement, and the endless scrolling of properties on apps like youâ...