After an eight-week campaign, Super Saturday is finally here. There are five byelections being held, but the race in Longman is one of two nail-biter contests that could go either way.

Dennis Atkins, the Courier Mail’s national affairs editor, says the mood in Longman is one of political exhaustion and that the result is anybody’s guess because of preference changes.

But Atkins says the LNP and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull could well be the winners regardless of the result. “If Shorten wins both the byelections he stays, and they regard Shorten as their best asset,” Atkins says. “If Shorten loses one or both of these byelections, then there is internal fighting in the Labor party and the Coalition will benefit from the appearance of disunity.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.